ενδιαφέρουσα ψύχραιμη ανάλυση ενός αμερικανού αναγνώστη της Guardian
So this is what I am getting in my early morning in NYC.
The Crimea referendum will be pushed up until 3/30, from May 25. The pro Russia Crimea will decide to secede from Ukraine even before the presidential election. I am reading reports about other pro Russia rallies in the Eastern parts of Ukraine.
So, the Crimea secession on 3/30 will spill over to the Eastern parts of Ukraine. Then, we will be seeing an internal division within the country. With more than 40% of the country being split along the Ukraine and Russian line, the interim govt will try to exert their authority on these separatists by using force. This is when the additional troops and Russian military supports are needed and will be used after March 30.
Of course, Putin hasn't done anything to influence the decision making process of the interim govt. I actually doubt that Russia has played any role in the political decision marking process of the interim govt. After all, they don't want Russia influence. Well, this is the problem.
And IMF won't be able to approve any loans until April and not until there is a stable govt. After all, one of the requirements to receive IMF help is for the nation to have a stable government. And the US and the EU are scratching their heads as to figuring what Russia is up to? The symbols and messages are all there.
And Russia is about to double the gas price to Ukraine.
The question is would Ukrainian troops be involved to "liberate" the East of Ukrainian and Crimea. Of course, any military actions by the interim Ukrainian govt has to incorporate US and EU military personnel, IE NATO forces. I doubt the NATO forces will be deployed to liberate Ukraine.
At best, Ukrainian military may receive backing and supports by NATO. Even then, each NATO member state has to vote on it.
In terms of the military involvement, the Ukrainian army is a lame duck.