Εδώ είναι το ποστ που έγραψα το 2012 στο φόρουμ του roosh για να εξηγήσω την ελληνική κρίση.
In Greece the circle is as follows:
1.Introduction of euro leads to ridiculous low interest rates in Greek bonds
2.Greek government borrows massively and spends the money on a.personal property increase of government members,b.property increase of their friends(by contracts etc),c.increase of salaries(this is key point for the elites to be able to get foreign borrowed cash they should give lots of cash to their friends and the folk in order to be accepted-that is why had for example 200000 fake blinds in Greece who got pensions as blind or the largest number of incompetent(eg 50% of population in some regions etc)
3.The private sector develops dependant on the state loans in the sense that the civil servants who get salary increases spend their incomes on consuming
4.The government feels that no matter the level of incompetence is they can put any person they favor in any position they wish since the growth and the inflow of money is supposed to continue forever(they suppose they are safe by having joined the euro).
Here is a big mistake of the economists.They thought that by combining incompetent sectors and incompetent people they would get zero risk since everything was guaranteed by the danger of bilateral collapse(a massive eurozone collapse would never be permitted so they felt free to do whatever they wished with supposedely no danger.In fact by these methods they became even more vulnerable).
So what happens:
1.The interest rates go to sky high levels when there is estimation Greece can no longer pay its debts.
2.The flow of money stops and the money gets out of Greece to northern safer countries.
3.The whole political system gets exposed as being corrupted and unreliable.The social benefits(to fake blinds etc) get cut off.People lose trust to the government and the political system as a whole.
4.By pressure of the Germans (as a prerequisite of bail out) the salaries and pensions get considerably decreased
5.Since there is no extra income by the civil servants they do not have money to spend on shops like in the past so the private sector contracts and the unemployment increases(it reaches 50% for the private sector)
More important:
6.The incompetent people having taken their permanent positions before by the government while it was thought this would not have consequences remain in position because it is not possible to be removed legally.They clearly cannot comprehend the situation.The performance as a whole is decreased as more and more of them got added and the older more competent ones gradually get pensions.This means that the problems has become structural so the situation is irreversible.
7.The people as a whole do not respond well to austerity measures.The northern protestants thought the Greeks would respond like Westerners that is by facing their salaries cut off they would increase their work load.Opposite to that the Greeks respond to the measures as Balkan herds and they reduce their workload when their salaries get reduced.Moreover the reduction of work is more than the reduction in salary.This has a result a serious decrease in performance.
The above decrease in performance means that every forecast about Greek economy during the first bail out fails.The Westerners had not estimated:
1.The gradual decrease in performance by the increased number of incompetent servants put there during the times of growth.This decrease was accelerated year by year
2.The decrease in performance by people who saw their salaries cut off(Balkan reaction).
So they made very foreseeably totally wrong estimations(they had estimated increase of GDP by 2011 already or a debt reduced to 120% of GDP by 2012 which has in fact now increased to 190% of GDP).
So everyone is right:
1.The elites say it is mainly fault of the IMF and the ECB who failed to make right estimations
2.The IMF says it is fault of the Germans(they refuse to let the ECB print money to give to indebted states and they refuse haircut of the state given loans)
3.The Germans blame the Greeks(as incompetent,corrupted,lazy)
4.The incompetent Greek civil servants put there during growth blame the rest of civil servants for not increasing their performance to compensate.They also blame the private sector for lack of innovation and incapability of producing worthy products for exports/
5.The competent civil servants blame the state which reduced their salaries regardless of any competence or merit thus making them indifferent
6.The communists blame the market(crisis is considered to be inherent in capitalism,it is just a matter of time when it appears)
7.The capitalists blame the leftist state in Greece(state is expensive,state is the source of every problem)
8.The nationalists blame the slave to foreign interests government and the immigrants who have come in millions,taken jobs gtom Greeks who remain unemployed and destroying the social strcuture and natinal cohesion by bringing foreign elements
9.The internationalists blame the nationalists for creating tension and hindering the economy
10.The Europhiles blame the Eurosceptics for sabotage and suspicious motivations(''they want the drachma back in order to be able to buy all property and commodities in Greece with the euros they exported to Swiss banks'')
11.The Eurosceptics blame the euro for everything(it has increased prices of goods and labor costs thus making economy uncompetitive.It cannot be sustained without a central European government and a central European economic policy and unity of banking system-relative disadvantages of EU to the US)
12.The drachmophils blame the euro(with a devaluation of drachma we would become competitive in one night-people do not accept internal devaluation,reduction of salaries as they accept currency devaluation)
13.The conspiracy theorists blame the Germans,the Jews or the big corporations for having conceived a mega plan for enslaving Greece(what is more many people have adopted the conspiracy theories)
14.The liberalists blame the state for employing so many civil servants while the private sector and the exports are in crisis
15.The statephils blame the businessmen and free traders who avoid paying taxes
What is more they talk and talk and talk and what they mostly get is a sea of arguments without any clear objective.The only one who has clear picture of the situation is Dr Schauble and he will follow his plan till the end.
Αλλο ποστ.
he ways Germans use Greece:
1.As an experimental field for austerity measures which are supposed to strengthen EU economy as a whole
2.To see how far they can get with intervention and appliance of economic policy and then try the same in other countries(to judge the level of population resistance and the strength of the local elites)
3.To give a negative exemplar as a fearsome ending to other countries so they will avoid asking for bail outs(eg if you dare to ask us for more money you will end like Greece,do you want that?)
4.To gather all the money invested to the South in previous years so they will have a cheap finance for the German industry(investors are so afraid they prefer to buy German bonds although they get zero interest or even negative interest instead of risking buying Italian or Spanish bonds despite the latter giving over 7% interest)
5.To ask a constant pressure on the Anglosaxon axis on the possibility of collapse if they continue to force newly printed dollars to get bought when ECB follows antiinflation policy refusing to print new euros.The real motivation is to slow down the global economy as a whole so that Germany will come out stronger since they will remain stable while the rest will suffer recession.
6.They hope to achieve decreases in global speculation activities against euro and crash the speculators who bet on EU dissolution and collapse
7.They want to keep other EU members like France under fear what will may happen to them if they lose the German support and their vulnerabilities get exposed as they are
8.What Germans really want to do is a deflation of the global economy to achieve natural levels.An axis will be formed between Germany as a means for production producer-Russia as a raw material producer and China as a consumerist goods producer.That is Russia will sell the raw material to Germany to build machinery to sell it to China so that the latter produces competitive goods and sells them to the US and global market achieving even more dependance of the rest on them.
Since Germans use a lot of bluff and real blackmail depending on their opponents weaknesses(which they know inside out) they achieve their purposes gradually.Greece has become a battlefield for them and it will suffer the fate of all battlefields.
Relative advantages of Germany:Strongest export country,keeping wages artificially lower than suggested in order to achieve increased competitiveness compared to southern European countries
Advantages of Russia:Big raw material producer
Advantages of China:Central government pressing wages down to keep the products of the country competitive.Currency connected artificially to dollar to be independant of dollar fluctuations regarding trade with the US.Also strengthened by the weakness of dollar
Advantages of the US
ollar connected to oil,meaning no matter how many dollars they print they get value out of paper since they exchange them with oil.All their debt is in dollars which they print.Also big military power which can cause destabilization and severe consequences to any country not following its orders